Six Months Into the Iran–Israel War: What the Evidence Shows

Opening Strike and Declared Objectives

Israel announced a preventive attack on Iran on February 28 and prepared for Iranian missile retaliation. The Israeli military later described the campaign as a joint U.S.-Israeli operation and said it had conducted more than 800 strike sorties and hit more than 4,000 targets during the first month; those figures are Israeli military claims, not independent counts. (manual-002)^4,5

The opening phase centered on strikes inside Iran and Iranian retaliation against Israel and U.S.-linked targets across the region. The declared Israeli objective was to reduce long-term nuclear, missile and military threats. Iran responded across multiple theaters, including the Gulf. (manual-005)^4,5

Regional Context: Yemen and the Red Sea

The rapid Houthi advance down Yemen's Red Sea coast this week is an astonishing military victory, but not quite the game-changer it is being portrayed as. The group has been able to threaten the vitally important shipping route, but they have been doing so since 2023. This new victory consolidates that control, proving that Yemen's government is not currently in a position to defeat them. (reported_only, based on Al Jazeera)¹

Iran now controls the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which strengthens its hand in the US-Iran war and increases pressure on Washington as surging petrol and food prices have already made the war highly unpopular, with voters expected to show their anger towards Republicans in the November mid-term elections. (conflicted — Al Jazeera discusses Houthi control of Red Sea/Bab al-Mandeb; the leap to full Iranian control of Hormuz is not fully substantiated by supplied evidence)²

Yemen government army bombs a "kill box" near Mocha, seized by Houthis yesterday. (Al Jazeera liveblog, based on Yemen government statement)³